Alberta Finance Minister Nate Horner takes media questions before delivering Budget 2026 at the Queen Elizabeth II Building in Edmonton on Feb. 26, 2026. Photo by Shaughn Butts /Postmedia Article content
Alberta’s finance minister says the province’s books are likely to remain in the red for the fiscal year that concluded Tuesday, though several weeks of significantly higher-than-projected oil prices have boosted the fiscal outlook.
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Speaking with reporters inside the legislature Wednesday, Finance Minister Nate Horner said he didn’t have any specific updated numbers to share for the year-end 2025-’26 but acknowledged oil prices have cut into the multibillion-dollar deficit.
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“There’s been a lot of napkin math done in my office,” he said. “We’re very interested in this, too. All I can say for sure is that the position will have improved. Is it enough to take us out of a deficit position? Highly unlikely.”
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The provincial budget tabled in late February forecast a $4.1-billion deficit for the 2025-’26 fiscal year, which ended Tuesday.
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“I expect it’s better than that,” Horner said.
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That figure marks a 36 per cent decrease from the $6.4-billion projected deficit put forth in the government’s second-quarter fiscal update.
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The final deficit number will be revealed in the year-end fiscal report, which is due before the end of June.
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Start of fiscal year
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Wednesday marks the start of the new 2026-’27 fiscal year, which projected a $9.4 billion deficit for the 12 months ahead, based on the average price of West Texas Intermediate (WTI) of US$60.50.
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Horner said Wednesday the government will update that forecast in August.
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“We’ll have the first quarter of actuals to build on,” he said. “You’ll see the change there.”
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The 2026-’27 budget indicated that every US$1 change in WTI prices results in a net impact of $680 million on average over the course of a year.
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Official Opposition Leader Naheed Nenshi accused the government of being bad with money.
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“We’re staring at one of the largest deficits we’ve ever seen. This government simply doesn’t know how to manage the books, and it’s time for a government that does.”
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Since the Feb. 26 Alberta budget, oil prices have surged well above the government projections, with prices ranging last month from US$85 to as high as US$115.
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Escalating conflict between the United States, Israel, and Iran has fuelled those increases, with supply being limited by the Iranian closure of the Strait of Hormuz, a critical waterway through which an estimated 20 million barrels of oil pass each day.
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Those costs are increasingly being passed on to consumers in the form of added transportation costs and higher fuel prices, which have exceeded $1.70 per litre in recent weeks in Edmonton.
https://edmontonjournal.com/news/politics/highly-unlikely-oil-prices-overturn-alberta-deficit
