Oil price to touch $100 as Iran nuclear talks collapse? Oil markets are flashing red. Brent crude crossed $71.41 a barrel on February 19, 2026, while WTI settled near $66.27 — a sharp climb that has little to do with supply fundamentals and everything to do with one word: Iran.
The Trump administration has positioned two full carrier strike groups in the Middle East. Fifty F-35, F-22, and F-16 combat jets were forward-deployed in a 24-hour window between February 17 and 18. The Pentagon has quietly begun moving non-essential personnel out of the region — a precautionary signal that military planners take seriously. According to multiple U.S. defense sources, a strike on Iran could come as early as this weekend, pending a final presidential decision.
Vice President JD Vance said publicly that Iran failed to meet U.S. red lines during Geneva nuclear talks. Trump has explicitly reserved the right to use military force. Markets are listening.
WTI crude oil (CL00) is trading near $66.74, up 2.60%. Brent crude oil (BZC00) is around $70.82, up 2.33%. These are significant daily moves in commodity markets.
Natural gas (NG00) has climbed to $3.04, reflecting broader energy demand concerns and risk sentiment. Gold (GC00) remains strong at $5,014. Safe-haven buying is steady. Silver (SI00) is slightly lower but still elevated compared to recent averages.
Just weeks ago, the EIA projected Brent averaging $58 for all of 2026, reflecting a global surplus of nearly 3 million barrels per day. That forecast now looks like a relic from a different timeline. A war premium of over $13 per barrel has been injected into crude in days.
Could oil hit $100 if US–Iran conflict disrupts the Strait of Hormuz? Every barrel of oil in this conversation eventually comes back to one 21-mile-wide waterway: the Strait of Hormuz.
Approximately 13 million barrels per day pass through the Strait — roughly 31% of all seaborne crude oil on earth. Iran controls the northern coastline. It has mined those waters before. It has threatened to close them before. This time, the context is different: Iran is simultaneously conducting live military drills in the Strait and running joint naval exercises with Russia in the Sea of Oman.
Analysts watching Hormuz say a confirmed U.S. military strike on Iranian territory would almost certainly trigger an asymmetric Iranian response targeting shipping lanes. Even partial disruption — not closure, just disruption — could push Brent past $100 within days. A full closure, however unlikely, would send shockwaves through global energy markets not seen since the 1973 oil embargo.
The U.S. Strategic Petroleum Reserve would likely be activated under such a scenario. But the SPR holds roughly 350 million barrels. Global consumption runs at 103 million barrels per day. The math is uncomfortable.
Iran Nuclear Talks Collapse: What Broke Down in Geneva The Geneva nuclear talks were supposed to be a de-escalation moment. They were not.
U.S. negotiators entered the talks with specific red lines around uranium enrichment levels and ballistic missile restrictions. Iran did not move on either point. Vance’s public statement afterward was unusually blunt by diplomatic standards — and markets priced the breakdown immediately.
Iran has a deadline. The Trump administration has given Tehran until the end of February to present serious concessions. That leaves roughly 10 days. The oil market is effectively trading that countdown in real time.
Every session between now and March 1 is a potential catalyst — either a sharp pullback toward $65 if talks resume meaningfully, or an acceleration toward $85, $90, or beyond if the diplomatic window closes entirely.
Trump, Oil Prices, and the 2026 Economic Stakes A sustained oil price above $85 carries direct consequences for the U.S. economy. Gasoline prices at the pump typically lag crude by two to four weeks. At $100 Brent, the national average for regular gasoline could climb past $4.00 per gallon — a politically sensitive threshold that the Trump administration has historically treated as a hard ceiling on acceptable energy costs.
This creates a genuine strategic tension. Military pressure on Iran serves one foreign policy goal. But a commodity shock from that same pressure undermines the administration’s economic credibility heading into mid-term positioning. Treasury markets are already reflecting this uncertainty, with energy sector equities outperforming the broader S&P 500 by more than 4% this week alone.
Oil Price Outlook Three scenarios are now priced into the forward curve. If talks resume and Iran offers partial concessions, oil likely retreats toward $65 to $67. If talks collapse without military action, a range of $72 to $80 holds through Q1. If strikes occur and Iran responds in the Strait, $100 is not a ceiling — it becomes a floor.
The next 10 days are the most consequential window for crude oil prices in years. Traders are not speculating on geopolitics. They are hedging against a war that U.S. officials are no longer pretending isn’t possible.
https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/international/us/oil-price-to-touch-100-as-iran-nuclear-talks-collapse-oil-prices-hit-71-today-as-u-s-iran-war-risk-pushes-crude-toward-triple-digits/articleshow/128569592.cms
