By Editorial Dept – Dec 24, 2025, 6:00 AM CST
WTI crude futures advanced more than 3% during the final full trading week of 2025, rising to $58.46 after gaining $1.94 since last Friday. The rally stands out during a traditionally muted period between Christmas and New Year’s, when thin liquidity often dampens movement. Instead, geopolitical events have reshaped short-term sentiment, prompting traders to reprice supply risk despite widespread expectations that 2026 will bring heavy oversupply.
Reduced participation has amplified price action, leaving the market more sensitive to developments involving Venezuela and Russia. With traders closing books for the year, headline-driven flows have been strong enough to sustain a meaningful weekly advance.
U.S. Pressure on Venezuela Boosts Risk Premium and Influences Oil Prices Forecast Discussions
The sharpest catalyst for this week’s gains has been the escalation in U.S. enforcement actions targeting Venezuelan crude shipments. President Donald Trump confirmed that another tanker is now being pursued, following the seizure of two vessels and their cargo. The Centuries—carrying roughly 2 million barrels—was boarded recently, signaling a willingness by Washington to intensify pressure on Nicolas Maduro’s government.
Even though Venezuela supplies less than 1% of global crude, the operational risk this introduces matters to traders. The volumes are small, but the implications for shipping security and market psychology are far-reaching. Any suggestion that…
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https://oilprice.com/Energy/Energy-General/Oil-Prices-Climb-Despite-Oversupply-Fears.html
