Charles Kennedy
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By Charles Kennedy – Aug 12, 2025, 8:39 PM CDT
Oil prices were trading relatively flat in early Asian trading on Wednesday, following losses in the previous session as traders weighed signs of slowing U.S. demand and awaited inventory data from the EIA.
At the time of writing, WTI Crude was down 0.17% at $63.06 per barrel, while Brent Crude had slipped 0.09% to $66.06.
The modest moves come after the American Petroleum Institute reported a 1.52 million barrel increase in U.S. crude stocks, suggesting that the peak summer driving season is winding down. Gasoline inventories fell, but distillates – used for diesel and heating oil – saw a slight build.
If the EIA’s official figures, due out later on Wednesday, confirm a crude build, it would reinforce expectations that refiners are dialing back runs as the Memorial Day-to-Labor Day demand window closes. Analysts polled by Reuters are looking for a 300,000-barrel draw, which would contrast with the API’s build.
The latest monthly outlooks from OPEC and the EIA indicated higher oil production this year, putting some downward pressure on prices. Both agencies, however, project U.S. output to ease in 2026 after hitting a record 13.41 million bpd in 2025, largely due to increased well productivity.
OPEC expects global oil demand to rise by 1.38 million bpd in 2026, slightly higher than its previous estimate, while leaving its 2025 forecast unchanged.
On the geopolitical front, the White House tempered expectations of a quick Russia-Ukraine ceasefire ahead of Friday’s meeting between President Trump and Putin in Alaska. While prospects for additional sanctions on Russian crude have faded, traders remain cautious about any developments that could alter global supply dynamics.
Early price action suggests that traders are in a holding pattern ahead of the EIA data, with sentiment shaped by both seasonal demand shifts and macro-level supply outlooks. A bullish surprise in today’s inventory report could provide some support, but without it, the market may remain rangebound through the week.
By Charles Kennedy for Oilprice.com
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Charles Kennedy
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